- 10 Marks
QTB – May 2016 – L1 – SB – Q6b – Operations Research
This question involves calculating seasonal adjustments based on moving average analysis for sales data.
Question
i. The following moving average analysis is obtained for the quarterly sales of a bakery based on the additive model:
| Quarter | Trend | Actual Sales in the Quarter | Variation (Actual – Trend) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1: Q3 | 29.375 | 29 | -0.375 |
| Year 1: Q4 | 33.125 | 33 | -0.125 |
| Year 2: Q1 | 37.125 | 37 | -0.125 |
| Year 2: Q2 | 41.250 | 41 | -0.250 |
| Year 2: Q3 | 45.000 | 46 | 1.000 |
| Year 2: Q4 | 47.875 | 48 | 0.125 |
| Year 3: Q1 | 53.000 | 51 | -2.000 |
| Year 3: Q2 | 57.125 | 58 | 0.875 |
Required:
Calculate the seasonal adjustment for each quarter.
(6 marks)
ii. An electrical bulb-making company runs a production line that contains 760 bulbs of the same wattage. These bulbs fail on a regular basis according to the following probability distribution:
| Life (months) | Probability of Failure (P) |
|---|---|
| 1 | 0.27 |
| 2 | 0.56 |
| 3 | 0.17 |
Required:
If the cost of replacing a bulb is N60, determine the following:
- The life span (2 marks)
- The average number of replacements in the period (1 mark)
- The average monthly cost of replacing the bulbs. (1 mark)
Find Related Questions by Tags, levels, etc.
- Tags: Forecasting, Moving Averages, Seasonal Adjustment
- Level: Level 1
- Topic: Operations Research
- Series: MAY 2016
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