Multiplicative Model – NBC Institute

QT – May 2019 – L1 – Q1a – Forecasting

Calculate centered trend values using moving average, determine seasonal variations, adjust variations, and forecast future clients using a multiplicative model.

Question

The number of clients who consulted Tsoo Consult within a period of three years were recorded as follows:

Year	Quarter 1	Quarter 2	Quarter 3	Quarter 4
1	75	70	75	80
2	95	85	80	65
3	100	105	115	90

Required:
a) Assuming a 4 quarterly cycle, calculate the centred trend values for the data by moving average method. (4 marks)

b) Using (a) above and the multiplicative model, calculate the average seasonal variations. (5 marks)

c) Using (b) above, calculate the adjusted average seasonal variations for the data. (5 marks)

d) Using the trend and the adjusted average seasonal variation, forecast the number of clients for Year 4 based on the multiplicative model. (6 marks)

Answer

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Tags: Forecasting, Moving Averages, Multiplicative Model, Seasonal Variation, Time series
Level: Level 1

Topic: Forecasting
Series: MAY 2019

QT – May 2016 – L1 – Q2 – Forecasting

This question asks for the creation of a linear regression trend equation, seasonal components, and forecasts for chocolate sales.

Question

Countess Company trades in bars of Golden Tree Chocolate from Tema Cocoa Processing Company Limited. The number of bars of chocolate sold per quarter over a four-year period by Countess Company is:

YEAR	QUARTER 1	QUARTER 2	QUARTER 3	QUARTER 4
1	20	10	4	11
2	33	17	9	18
3	45	23	11	25
4	60	30	13	29

Required:

i) Plot the data on a graph (3 marks)

ii) Calculate a linear regression trend equation for the data (5 marks)

iii) Calculate the four seasonal components using a multiplicative model (5 marks)

iv) Forecast the number of bars of chocolate for the next two years (5 marks)

v) Comment on the reliability of the forecasts in iv) above (2 marks)

Answer

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Tags: Forecasting, Linear Regression, Multiplicative Model, Seasonal Components, Time series
Level: Level 1

Topic: Forecasting
Series: MAY 2016

QT – Nov 2018 – L1 – Q6a – Forecasting

State the two main models of time series analysis.

Question

State the TWO (2) main models of time series analysis. (2 marks)

Answer

Find Related Questions by Tags, levels, etc.

Tags: Additive model, Forecasting, Models, Multiplicative Model, Time series
Level: Level 1

Topic: Forecasting
Series: NOV 2018

QT – May 2019 – L1 – Q1a – Forecasting

Calculate centered trend values using moving average, determine seasonal variations, adjust variations, and forecast future clients using a multiplicative model.

Question

The number of clients who consulted Tsoo Consult within a period of three years were recorded as follows:

Year	Quarter 1	Quarter 2	Quarter 3	Quarter 4
1	75	70	75	80
2	95	85	80	65
3	100	105	115	90

Required:
a) Assuming a 4 quarterly cycle, calculate the centred trend values for the data by moving average method. (4 marks)

b) Using (a) above and the multiplicative model, calculate the average seasonal variations. (5 marks)

c) Using (b) above, calculate the adjusted average seasonal variations for the data. (5 marks)

d) Using the trend and the adjusted average seasonal variation, forecast the number of clients for Year 4 based on the multiplicative model. (6 marks)

Answer

Find Related Questions by Tags, levels, etc.

Tags: Forecasting, Moving Averages, Multiplicative Model, Seasonal Variation, Time series
Level: Level 1

Topic: Forecasting
Series: MAY 2019

QT – May 2016 – L1 – Q2 – Forecasting

This question asks for the creation of a linear regression trend equation, seasonal components, and forecasts for chocolate sales.

Question

Countess Company trades in bars of Golden Tree Chocolate from Tema Cocoa Processing Company Limited. The number of bars of chocolate sold per quarter over a four-year period by Countess Company is:

YEAR	QUARTER 1	QUARTER 2	QUARTER 3	QUARTER 4
1	20	10	4	11
2	33	17	9	18
3	45	23	11	25
4	60	30	13	29

Required:

i) Plot the data on a graph (3 marks)

ii) Calculate a linear regression trend equation for the data (5 marks)

iii) Calculate the four seasonal components using a multiplicative model (5 marks)

iv) Forecast the number of bars of chocolate for the next two years (5 marks)

v) Comment on the reliability of the forecasts in iv) above (2 marks)

Answer

Find Related Questions by Tags, levels, etc.

Tags: Forecasting, Linear Regression, Multiplicative Model, Seasonal Components, Time series
Level: Level 1

Topic: Forecasting
Series: MAY 2016

QT – Nov 2018 – L1 – Q6a – Forecasting

State the two main models of time series analysis.

Question

State the TWO (2) main models of time series analysis. (2 marks)

Answer

Find Related Questions by Tags, levels, etc.

Tags: Additive model, Forecasting, Models, Multiplicative Model, Time series
Level: Level 1

Topic: Forecasting
Series: NOV 2018

Question Tag: Multiplicative Model

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QT – May 2019 – L1 – Q1a – Forecasting

Calculate centered trend values using moving average, determine seasonal variations, adjust variations, and forecast future clients using a multiplicative model.

QT – May 2016 – L1 – Q2 – Forecasting

This question asks for the creation of a linear regression trend equation, seasonal components, and forecasts for chocolate sales.

QT – Nov 2018 – L1 – Q6a – Forecasting

State the two main models of time series analysis.

QT – May 2019 – L1 – Q1a – Forecasting

Calculate centered trend values using moving average, determine seasonal variations, adjust variations, and forecast future clients using a multiplicative model.

QT – May 2016 – L1 – Q2 – Forecasting

This question asks for the creation of a linear regression trend equation, seasonal components, and forecasts for chocolate sales.

QT – Nov 2018 – L1 – Q6a – Forecasting

State the two main models of time series analysis.

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QT – May 2019 – L1 – Q1a – Forecasting

Calculate centered trend values using moving average, determine seasonal variations, adjust variations, and forecast future clients using a multiplicative model.

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QT – May 2016 – L1 – Q2 – Forecasting

This question asks for the creation of a linear regression trend equation, seasonal components, and forecasts for chocolate sales.

You're reporting an error for "QT – May 2016 – L1 – Q2 – Forecasting"

QT – Nov 2018 – L1 – Q6a – Forecasting

State the two main models of time series analysis.

You're reporting an error for "QT – Nov 2018 – L1 – Q6a – Forecasting"

QT – May 2019 – L1 – Q1a – Forecasting

Calculate centered trend values using moving average, determine seasonal variations, adjust variations, and forecast future clients using a multiplicative model.

You're reporting an error for "QT – May 2019 – L1 – Q1a – Forecasting"

QT – May 2016 – L1 – Q2 – Forecasting

This question asks for the creation of a linear regression trend equation, seasonal components, and forecasts for chocolate sales.

You're reporting an error for "QT – May 2016 – L1 – Q2 – Forecasting"

QT – Nov 2018 – L1 – Q6a – Forecasting

State the two main models of time series analysis.

You're reporting an error for "QT – Nov 2018 – L1 – Q6a – Forecasting"

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